Ratio of inactive elderly to the total labour force, 2050
Ratio of inactive elderly to the total labour force, 2050 by country
This graph shows the projected ratio between “inactive elderly population” (people aged 65+ that don’t work) and the total labour force in 2050. This ratio is also called the “dependency ratio”.
In almost every OECD country, there will be less than 2 active persons per inactive elderly, except in Iceland, Sweden and Mexico, who will still have dependency ratios above 40% (today, only Italy and Greece have ratios over 40%.). On average, the ratio will be around 2 thirds, or 3 active persons per 2 inactive elderly.
In countries like Spain, Korea, Japan or Italy, the ratio will be over 90% – almost one to one.
Data supporting this graph can be found here
August 6, 2008 at 11:01 pm
This graph seems quite astonishing. Although I have some reservations, particularly about the accuracy of such long term forecasts, my biggest worry is the definition of the series.
In the data you provide there are two series, one for the ‘inactive elderly’ population, and one for the ‘active’ – the latter is far less spectacula. None of the ratios surpass 40%.
The dataset doesn’t provide definitions. Could you provide a definition, or a link to the source? If the active population dwarfs the inactive (I’m really not sure of magnitudes here) then the chart may have little meaning – even if it is very impressive at first sight.
August 7, 2008 at 10:18 am
well, to encourage people to go beyond graphs and explore the data sources is the raison d’être of the factblog. So,
in the data file, there are 2 series. the first is the ratio of people aged 65 and over to the total population. Because the elderly are included in the total population, this ratio cannot exceed 100%, and the figures we have for Japan or Italy in 2050, about 40%, are already extreme.
The other series are inactive elderly (people aged 65+ who are no longer part of the total labour force) as a percentage of the total labour force. In t hat case, the inactive elderly are not included in the second group, neither are anyone outside the labour force (students, people not seeking employment, etc.). This ratio is therefore more dramatic, but also more significant, because it is the people in the labour force who are supporting the others.
For more info you may want to check http://www.sourceoecd.org/rpsv/factbook/010201.htmand the links from there
August 8, 2008 at 9:27 am
Hello everybody, I just wanted to thank the people who had the brilliant idea to create this blog. I found it out yesterday by chance (while looking for some data) and I believe it is a marvelous and well implemented idea. I wish Eurostat had the same thing. Keep up the good work and thank you so much!!